Stand und Perspektiven der Evaluation der aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik in Deutschland

Diese Arbeit gibt einen Überblick der Konzeption und der Evaluation der Aktiven Arbeitsmarktpolitik (AAMP) in Deutschland. Die rechtliche Grundlage der AAMP stellte von 1969 bis 1997 das Arbeitsförderungsgesetz (AFG) dar. 1998 wurde dieses durch das Sozialgesetzbuch (SGB) III abgelöst. Während das AFG noch unter Bedingungen der Vollbeschäftigung eingeführt wurde und auch eine generelle Verbesserung der Funktionsweise des Arbeitsmarktes vorsah, erfolgte im Zeitablauf eine stärkere Ausrichtung der AAMP auf die Wiedereingliederung von Problemgruppen in den Arbeitsmarkt. Das SGB III stellt die Eingliederung von Arbeitslosen in reguläre Beschäftigung in den Mittelpunkt. Obwohl das SGB III in Ansätzen eine Erfolgskontrolle der AAMP vorsieht und trotz der hohen fiskalischen Kosten (43 Mrd. DM im Jahr 2001) fehlt bisher eine umfassende Evaluation der Wirkungen der AAMP unter Berücksichtigung der Kosten. Die Arbeit stellt die grundlegenden methodischen Probleme einer aussagekräftigen Evaluation dar. Die mikroökonomische Evaluation untersucht, ob die Teilnahme an einem arbeitsmarktpolitischen Programm zu einem Erfolg im Hinblick auf individuelle Zielgrößen wie Beschäftigung oder Verdienst führt

Skill wage premia, employment, and cohort effects: are workers in Germany all of the same type?

This paper studies the relationship between employment and wage structures in West Germany based on the IAB employment subsample 1975{1997. It extends the analytical framework of Card and Lemieux (2001) which simultaneously includes skill and age as important dimensions of heterogeneity. After having identified cohort effects in skill wage premia and in the evolution of relative employment measures, we estimate elasticities of substitution between employees in three different skill groups and between those of different age, taking account of the endogeneity of wages and employment. Compared to estimates in the related literature, we find a rather high degree of substitutability. Drawing on the estimated parameters, we simulate the magnitude of wage changes within the respective skill groups that would have been necessary to halve skill-specific unemployment rates in 1997. The required nominal wage reductions range from 8.8 to 12.2% and are the higher the lower the employees' skill level. --Labor Demand,Heterogeneity,Age,Skill,Wage Structure,Employment,Cohort Effects,Unemployment

Long-run effects of training programs for the unemployed in East Germany

Public sector sponsored training was implemented at a large scale during the transition process in East Germany. Based on new administrative data, we estimate the differential effects of three different programs for East Germany during the transition process. We apply a dynamic multiple treatment approach using matching based on inflows into unemployment. We find positive medium-and long-run employment effects for the largest program, Provision of Specific Professional Skills and Techniques. In contrast, the programs practice firms and retraining show no consistent positive employment effects. Furthermore, no program results in a reduction of benefit recipiency and the effects are quite similar for females and males. --multiple treatments,training programs,East Germany

Vocational Training and Gender: Wages and Occupational Mobility among young Workers

This paper investigates the relationship between the gender wage gap, the choice of training occupation, and occupational mobility. We use longitudinal data for young workers with apprenticeship training in West Germany. Workers make occupational career choices early during their careers and women and men pursue very different occupational careers. We reconsider whether through oc- cupational segregation women are locked in low wage careers (Kunze, 2005) or whether they can move up to higher wage paths through mobility. We furthermore investigate whether patterns have changed across cohorts during the period 1975 and 2001 and whether effects vary across the distribution. The main results are : First, while there exists a persistent gender wage gap over experience, the gap has decreased over time. Second, in the lower part of the wage distribution, the gap is highest and it increases with experience. Third, occupational mobility is lower for women than for men and the wage gains due to occupational mobility are higher for men than for women, especially in the lower part of the wage distribution. We conclude that occupational mobility has reduced the gender wage gap, but lock{in effects are still stronger for women compared to men. --gender wage gap,actual experience,occupational mobility,apprenticeship

Industry-level wage bargaining : a partial rehabilitation ; the German experience

In order to reduce unemployment, it is often recommended that industry-level wage bargaining in Germany should be replaced by a more decentralized system. This paper provides a critical assessment of the current wage bargaining institutions and reexamines the case for a more decentralized system. Based on a theoretical model integrating Insider-Outsider aspects into the comparison, the unformly superior employment performance of a decentralized wage bargaining system is questioned. We conclude that, rather than solely trying to decentralize wage bargaining, a promising policy option may be to improve the skills of the unemployed by efficient labour market policies and to foster institutional reforms such that wage bargaining takes account of the long-run employment consequences of wage setting. --Centralization of Wage Bargaining,Union Preferences,Insider-Outsider Theory,Germany

Unemployment, Labor Market Transitions, and Residual Wage Dispersion

It is commonplace in the debate on Germany?s labor market problems to argue that high unemployment and low wage dispersion are related. This paper analyses the relationship between unemployment and residual wage dispersion for individuals with comparable attributes. In the conventional neoclassical point of view, wages are determined by the marginal product of the workers. Accordingly, increases in union minimum wages result in a decline of residual wage dispersion and higher unemployment. A competing view regards wage dispersion as the outcome of search frictions and the associated monopsony power of the firms. Accordingly, an increase in search frictions causes both higher unemployment and higher wage dispersion. The empirical analysis attempts to discriminate between the two hypotheses for West Germany analyzing the relationship between wage dispersion and both the level of unemployment as well as the transition rates between different labor market states. The findings are not completely consistent with either theory. However, as predicted by search theory, one robust result is that unemployment by cells is not negatively correlated with the within?cell wage dispersion. --search friction,labor demand,labor market transitions,wages

Employment effects of the provision of specific professional skills and techniques in Germany

"Based on unique administrative data, which has only recently become available, this paper estimates the employment effects of the most important type of public sector sponsored training in Germany, namely the provision of specific professional skills and techniques (SPST). Using the inflows into unemployment for the year 1993, the empirical analysis uses local linear matching based on the estimated propensity score to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated of SPST programs starting during 1 to 6, 7 to 12, and 13 to 24 months of unemployment. The empirical results show a negative lock-in effect for the period right after the beginning of the program and significantly positive treatment effects on employment rates of about 10 percentage points and above a year after the beginning of the program. The general pattern of the estimated treatment effects is quite similar for the three time intervals of elapsed unemployment considered. The positive effects tend to persist almost completely until the end of our evaluation period. The positive effects are stronger in West Germany compared to East Germany." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))IAB-Beschäftigtenstichprobe, IAB-Leistungsempfängerhistorik, prozessproduzierte Daten, Weiterbildungsförderung - Erfolgskontrolle, Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer, berufliche Reintegration, Arbeitslose, Beschäftigungseffekte, Westdeutschland, Ostdeutschland, Bundesrepublik Deutschland

Dips and floors in workplace training: Using personnel records to estimate gender differences

Using personnel records from a single large German firm in the financial industry, this paper provides detailed evidence on the effect of age and the supervisor's gender on gender differences in workplace training, holding constant various workplace characteristics. We implement an age-specific decomposition of the incidence and the duration of training into three terms: an age-specific coefficients effect, an age-specific characteristics effect, and an age composition effect. Our results show that the gender training gap changes with age. Females obtain less training during the early career, and their training occurs at higher age. The timing of the gender training gap seems to be driven by diverging career paths associated with employment interruptions. However, we find no evidence for catching-up effects after parental leave. A decomposition of the training gap including supervisor fixed effects reveals that supervisors do not treat male and female employees differently. Supervisors assign more training to all employees if they themselves participate more in training. --training participation,age,gender,company data

Unemployment durations in West-Germany before and after the reform of the unemployment compensation system during the 1980s

This paper analyzes empirically the distribution of unemployment durations in West- Germany before and after the changes during the mid 1980s in the maximum entitlement periods for unemployment benefits for elderly unemployed. The analysis is based on the comprehensive IAB employment subsample containing register panel data for about 500.000 individuals in West Germany. We analyze two proxies for unemployment since the data do not precisely measure unemployment in an economic sense. We provide a theoretical analysis of the link between the durations of nonemployment and of unemployment between jobs. Our empirical analysis finds significant changes in the distributions of nonemployment durations for older unemployed individuals. At the same time, the distribution of unemployment durations between jobs did not change in response to the reforms. Our findings are consistent with an interpretation that many firms and workers used the more bene cial laws as a part of early retirement packages but those workers who were still looking for a job did not reduce their search effort in response to the extension of the maximum entitlement periods. This interpretation is consistent with our theoretical model under plausible assumptions. JEL: C24, J64, J6

Descriptive Evidence on Labor Market Transitions and the Wage Structure in Germany

Equilibrium search theory suggests that the wage distribution in a cross section of workers is closely related to labor market transitions and associated wage changes. Accordingly, job?to?job transitions are central in explaining the wage distribution. This paper uses the IAB employment subsample to describe the empirics of labor market transitions and the wage structure in Germany. Motivated by search theory, we use the data to explore descriptively labor market transitions and features of the wage structure. We find that labor market transition rates vary substantially over the business cycle and with individual characteristics. Regarding job?to?job transitions, we find considerable wage changes. Most job changes involve considerable gains, but a number of individuals incurs a remarkable loss. Regarding the wage structure, we find strong effects of job?to?job transitions, age, and education on wage mobility. Based on our descriptive analysis, we conclude that indeed a close relationship exists between wages and labor market transitions as predicted by search theory. However, the noticeable share of wage losses following job?to?job changes contradicts a simple search theoretic perspective. --search friction,labor market transitions,wages